JAKARTA - The administration of President-elect Jokowi JK predicted will be short lived and not more than a period of 2 years.
If government Joko Widodo (Jokowi) are not careful in managing the country’s economy then the government could take a period of two years given the challenges facing larger than the previous administration.
This statement was made by the former Minister for Economic Affairs Rizal Ramli in a discussion entitled “Dissecting the State Budget 2015″ in the DPR building Thursday (21/8/8/2014).
Besides Rizal, the other speakers in the discussion is a member of the House Hendrawan Supratikno which is a member of the economic team-mate candidate Joko Widodo Jusuf Kalla. Other speakers are national entrepreneur John Riyadi.
According to Rizal, when President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY) began his reign, the Indonesian economy in general benefit from a high enough demand for commodities from abroad.
China and India, for example, requires raw materials such as coal and petroleum are also palm oil in bulk.
In recent years, said Rizal, demand for Indonesia‘s commodity exports are likely to decline.
In terms of politics, the next government opposition forces are also much more confrontational given the fact the rivalry during the campaign.
While in parliamentary opposition forces reach the two-thirds rule that could potentially disrupt.
“If the new government next not careful, could be two years old,” said Rizal.
Rizal underlined the economic problems faced by Indonesia that he be compared to trap Batman or Batman trap.
The issue quatro deficit or four deficits, according to him, the main issue to be solved.
In addition to facing a trade deficit and current account deficit, Indonesia faced balance of payments deficit and the budget deficit, he said.
Next administration also inherited a “time bomb” ready to explode if not sophisticated Jokowi manage the economy.
Rizal said one of the trap time bomb that is the posture of the state budget that does not provide a flexible space for Jokowi to fix the economy.
Meanwhile, John Riyadi confirms one of the threats to the national economy in terms of the external is a matter of policy the Fed is certain to raise interest rates.
With the policy, he said, capital outflow from Indonesia will be high considering the appeal of the interest rate is higher in the United States.
The condition is also exacerbated by the estimated value of which is pegged at Rp13,000 dollars if the government does not do anything (the status quo).
He refers to the prediction of global financial institutions Goldman Sachs.
However, John insists that in such circumstances will not go bankrupt given the Indonesian rupiah weakened on one side also profitable export.
Only, John agreed with Rizal that Jokowi challenges faced when starting his reign is considered more severe than the challenges faced when Yudhoyono came to power ten years ago